Post by J85K on Mar 29, 2015 16:00:18 GMT -4
Thursday February 5, 2015
While long-range forecasts for 2015 Atlantic hurricane activity indicate another average to slightly below average season, there is some divergence of opinion so far in advance of the official start of the season on June 1.
Read more: www.caribbean360.com/news/mixed-predictions-2015-atlantic-hurricane-season
COLORADO, United States
The respected team of Klotzbach and Gray from Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science believes that we remain in an active era for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones since 1995 (despite the quiet seasons that occurred in 2013-2014), and say that they expect typical conditions associated with a positive Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) and strong thermohaline circulation (THC) will return in 2015.
An earlier prediction from British-based Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) said that their extended range forecast suggested another below average season in 2015. Based on projected climate signals, TSR forecast Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity to be around 20 percent below the 1950-2014 long-term norm and around 30 percent below the recent 2005-2014 10-year norm.
TSR said that its main predictor for this extended range forecast is expected July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic. TSR noted that this can influence cyclonic vorticity (how storms spin up) as well as vertical wind shear in the main hurricane track region. While noting a low level of precision in its long range predictions, TSR forecast 13 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 intense hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 79.
While long-range forecasts for 2015 Atlantic hurricane activity indicate another average to slightly below average season, there is some divergence of opinion so far in advance of the official start of the season on June 1.
Read more: www.caribbean360.com/news/mixed-predictions-2015-atlantic-hurricane-season
COLORADO, United States
The respected team of Klotzbach and Gray from Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science believes that we remain in an active era for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones since 1995 (despite the quiet seasons that occurred in 2013-2014), and say that they expect typical conditions associated with a positive Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) and strong thermohaline circulation (THC) will return in 2015.
| Names of 2015 | ANA | BILL | CLAUDETTE | DANNY | ERIKA | FRED | GRACE | HENRI | IDA | JOAQUIN | KATE |
| Atlantic Storms | LARRY | MINDY | NICHOLAS | ODETTE | PETER | ROSE | SAM | TERESA | VICTOR | WANDA |
An earlier prediction from British-based Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) said that their extended range forecast suggested another below average season in 2015. Based on projected climate signals, TSR forecast Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity to be around 20 percent below the 1950-2014 long-term norm and around 30 percent below the recent 2005-2014 10-year norm.
TSR said that its main predictor for this extended range forecast is expected July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic. TSR noted that this can influence cyclonic vorticity (how storms spin up) as well as vertical wind shear in the main hurricane track region. While noting a low level of precision in its long range predictions, TSR forecast 13 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 intense hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 79.